More EU pig meat destined for export
The latest Prospects report from the EU Commission paints a picture of recovery for EU meat markets in the medium term.
The latest Prospects report from the EU Commission paints a picture of recovery for EU meat markets in the medium term. Total meat production by 2024 could reach 44.9 million tonnes. Unsurprisingly, poultry will retain its position as the main driver of rising production figures, being the only sector anticipated to increase in both internal production and consumption.
Pig meat, as the largest meat sector in the EU, is expected to show some recovery in the short term as feed prices are low and herds stabilise in size, resulting in a steady annual increase thereafter. Production is forecast to increase by 2% to 22.6 million tonnes by 2024. This is a slower increase than in the previous decade and has in part been dictated by new legislation on welfare and environmental practices, requiring a restructuring of the industry. Increased production, however, will not be reflected in internal consumption, which is anticipated to fall slightly to 30.3kg per capita, despite recovering economies and increasing populations providing potential for greater demand.
With production increasing but domestic demand decreasing, exports have the potential to increase by 20%. The EU will be in a position to maintain its 50% import market share in China. Redirection of EU pig meat previously destined for Russia (a quarter of EU pig meat exports) should be possible through the expanding Asian markets, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, as well as ensuring internal EU competition is sustained by an export driven market. As global demand increases, the EU can expect to see an increase in price for its pig meat in the medium-term. This report estimates an increase of 11% on current levels, giving a potential average of €1.83 per kg (about £1.45/kg at current exchange rates) in 2024.
The full report can be downloaded by clicking here.