EU meat production set to recover
In its latest short-term outlook for crops, meat and dairy markets, the EU Commission forecasts that meat production will start to recover in 2014 and 2015.
In its latest short-term outlook for crops, meat and dairy markets, the EU Commission forecasts that meat production will start to recover in 2014 and 2015, following two years of tight supplies for beef and pig meat. Total EU meat production is forecast to be up 0.7% this year to 43.9 million tonnes, with a further 1% rise next year. Pig meat output is expected to rise fractionally to 22.4 million tonnes, with growth of just under 1% in 2015, to 22.6 million tonnes. With the economy improving, meat consumption is expected to rise faster than production this year, leading to a 5% decline in exports. In particular, pig meat exports are forecast to be down 7% on the year, with the Russian ban on EU pork contributing to this, before stabilising next year.
The report also forecasts an above average cereal harvest in 2014 of 303 million tonnes, marginally ahead of 2013, itself a good year. Record exports during the 2013/14 season have meant that there has only been a small increase in stock levels. However, lower exports are anticipated for 2014/15, meaning more stock rebuilding is expected, despite increased use of cereals to feed animals in the EU. If realised, this could support further downward movements in prices, although much will depend on global market conditions and the weather in the coming weeks.
To read the full report, click here.