Rabobank forecasts ‘Not enough pork to go around’
In its latest Pork Quarterly report, Rabobank forecasts that pork shortages will be a concern in many countries in the coming months.
In its latest Pork Quarterly report, Rabobank forecasts that pork shortages will be a concern in many countries in the coming months. This is largely the result of disease issues, principally the outbreaks of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea virus (PEDv) in the Americas and Asia. The report suggests that this is likely to lead to a decline in global pork production this year, although this is a more pessimistic view than that presented by the recent USDA global outlook, which predicted a small increase. These supply shortages are likely to keep prices high, notably in the US, where they have reached record highs this spring.
The tight global supply situation is being exacerbated by Russia’s ban on EU pork imports, following the African Swine Fever cases earlier this year, increasing its demand for pork from other exporters. The PEDv situation has meant that the EU has been able to find markets, mainly in Asia, for much of the pork which would have gone to Russia. Coupled with lower supplies and robust consumer demand, this has mitigated the effect of the Russian ban. Therefore, only in China are supplies plentiful, with low prices meaning producers are losing money. As a result, high sow liquidation is adding to the current over-supply but this could mean tighter supplies (and better prices) ahead, providing opportunities for global exporters in the longer-term.
For further details about Rabobank’s Pork Quarterly report, click here.