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USDA forecasts growth in global pork trade in 2015

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2014 \ October \ USDA forecasts growth in global pork trade in 2015

The latest global outlook report published by the US Department of Agriculture estimates an increase of almost 2% in world pig meat production in 2014 as a whole, to 110.6 million tonnes. Global pork exports will increase by 4% in 2015, to 7.2 million tonnes.

The latest global outlook report published by the US Department of Agriculture estimates an increase of almost 2% in world pig meat production in 2014 as a whole, to 110.6 million tonnes. Predictions for 2015 also show an increase in output, albeit a slower one, up by 1% to 111.8 million tonnes. China continues to dominate global pork production and is the key driver of overall trends, with production forecast to increase by 3% in 2014 and a further 2% in 2015. However, with Chinese demand for pig meat growing at a faster rate than production, its import requirement is expected to increase, providing opportunities for global exporters. Production in the rest of the world is expected to be little changed this year, with lower output in countries affected by PEDv offset by increases elsewhere.  The report forecasts 1% growth in non-Chinese production next year but this relies on a significant rise in US output which will depend on PEDv having less impact next year.

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After declining for two years, USDA forecasts that global pork exports will increase by 4% in 2015. Despite stable production being expected in the EU, exports in 2015 are forecast to rise by 2%, particularly driven by robust demand from China and South Korea. This is likely to mitigate the impact of the loss of the Russian market earlier this year. However, the EU is likely to face strong export competition from the US and Brazil. In the US, production is expected to rise by 5% in 2015, with around a 3% increase in exports, with supplies mainly destined for Asian and Mexican buyers. Brazilian exports are exported to rise by as much as 20%, given that it is the largest exporter which still has access to the Russian market.

To read the full USDA report, this also covers beef and poultry meat, click here.