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Bethan Wilkins

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AHDB Pork Market Intelligence

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Slow growth forecast for EU pig meat

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2015 \ December \ Slow growth forecast for EU pig meat

EU pig meat production is expected to grow only slowly over the next decade, according to the EU Commission’s newly published Medium-term Outlook report.

Pig meat output in 2025 is projected to be less than 2% higher than in 2015, at 23.8 million tonnes. Only a slow recovery from the current low price level is anticipated, as demand remains subdued on the domestic market. The report suggests that prices will remain below the high levels of 2013, although there is considerable uncertainty. In reality, the market is likely to see periods of both low and high prices during the period.

The modest growth in supplies will still be too quick to match subdued EU consumption, which is projected to fall slightly despite an increase in the EU population. Per capita consumption is set to fall from 32.6kg/head this year to 31.8kg by 2025. That means that exports will need to rise to reflect the additional volumes. By the end of the projection period, shipments are expected to be more than a quarter above current levels at 2.6 million tonnes (carcase weight equivalent). The report also assumes that pig meat imports will remain minimal. However, this does not take into account any impact of free-trade agreements which are not yet agreed, notably the Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the US.