More of the same in 2015? - Outlook for UK pig meat supplies
Latest AHDB/BPEX forecasts for UK pig meat supplies were launched at the AHDB Outlook Conference on Wednesday 11 February.
Latest AHDB/BPEX forecasts for UK pig meat supplies were launched at the AHDB Outlook Conference on Wednesday. They suggest that the supply situation in the year ahead will be similar to that experienced during most of 2014 and the market direction will depend on how demand responds. With a broadly stable breeding herd and improving productivity, UK clean pig slaughterings are expected to be between 2% and 3% higher than last year in 2015, reaching around 10.5 million head. A similar rise is forecast for the following year. With carcase weights also expected to remain high, pig meat production is set to show a similar growth rate.
Despite the unprecedented gap between UK and EU pig prices over the last year, pig meat imports have only increased marginally. This suggests that retailers remain strongly committed to sourcing from the UK and further import growth next year is unlikely. With the euro weakening against the pound, however, export growth may also be modest as UK product will be less competitive in overseas markets. In addition, there will be more competition from US and Canadian supplies on global markets than was the case in 2014. With little change anticipated in the trade balance, increased production will translate into more supplies available for domestic consumption. This will need to be met by higher demand if further price falls are to be avoided.
To read about the outlook for UK pig meat supplies in more detail, click here.
To read our analysis of the forecasts and what they might mean for the pig market, click here.
A full review of the Outlook Conference and copies of presentations will appear on this site in the next few days.