Positive outlook for global meat market
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has just published its Agricultural Outlook for 2015 to 2024.
In real terms, it forecasts that prices for all agricultural products will decrease over the next 10 years as on-trend productivity growth, helped by lower input prices, outpaces slowing demand increases. However, prices are still projected to remain at a higher level than in the years preceding the 2007-08 price spike. The outlook for the meat market remains largely positive, with feed grain prices set to remain low over the next decade, although there will inevitably be year-on-year fluctuations. Nominal meat prices are expected to stay relatively strong, although not reaching the heights of 2014 but they will decline in real terms. In particular, pork prices are projected to remain close to the levels recorded in most recent years, although with some variation.
Global meat production is projected to rise at a slower rate in the next decade than in the previous 10 years, with most of the growth coming from developing countries. As in recent years, expansion will be led by poultry meat, which will account for more than half the overall growth. Similar trends are also projected for consumption. Per capita pork consumption is expected to be stable overall, with population growth in developing countries the main driver of any increase. Growth in the volume of meat traded around the world is expected to slow down. While the most significant increase in import demand will originate in Asia, Africa will be another growing meat importer, albeit from a low base. Although developed countries are still expected to account for around half of all meat exports in 2024, their share will steadily decrease. The implementation of various bilateral trade agreements over the next decade could diversify the meat trade considerably.