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Bethan Wilkins

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AHDB Pork Market Intelligence

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Global pork production forecast to grow slowly

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2015 \ October \ Global pork production forecast to grow slowly

Global pig meat production is estimated to total 111.5 million tonnes in 2015, an increase of 1% compared to last year, according to the latest global outlook report published by the US Department of Agriculture. Looking ahead to 2016, output is forecast to increase once again, by a small margin to 112.0 million tonnes.

A slight decline from the EU will be offset by estimated increases from other countries, with production from Russia up by 6%. China continues to dominate pig production across the globe but it is forecast that production will decrease slightly in 2015 before regaining volumes in 2016. US production growth is expected to continue, although slowing significantly, from 8% in 2015 to just 1% next year. The Brazilian pork industry is estimated to grow further, with increases of 2% in both 2015 and 2016, as the country increases shipments to the Russian market.

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After two consecutive years of declines, global pork exports are forecast to increase by 4% in 2015, reaching a total of 7.1 million tonnes. It is estimated that this will increase further into 2016, albeit by a smaller margin of 2%. The majority of next year’s growth is expected to be led by the US and Brazil, with exports ahead by 5% and 3% retrospectively. Imports to Japan, the world’s leading buyer of imported pork, are estimated to decrease by 5% in 2015 and a further 2% in 2016 as the country’s domestic production rebuilds after PEDv outbreaks in 2014. Of course, exports to Russia are also set to be much lower this year, with further falls next year. These falls are being offset by increased shipments to Mexico, China and South Korea, among others, although growth will be much lower next year.

To read the full USDA report, which also covers beef and poultry meat, click here.