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Bethan Wilkins


AHDB Pork Market Intelligence


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Global pig meat production forecast to decline

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Global pig meat production is forecast to decrease by 1% on the year to 109.3 million tonnes in 2016, according to latest global outlook report from the USDA.

Furthermore, the latest forecast is 2% lower than October’s estimate as the outlook for the world’s largest pig meat producer, China, has changed. Having predicted an increase year on year in October, USDA now forecasts a decrease of 3% year on year, to 53.5 million tonnes. The reduction in output is thought to be due to poor producer profitability last year, a slowdown in China’s economic growth and issues surrounding its environmental regulations.

EU pig meat production is expected to exceed October’s forecast by 1% to 23.2 million tonnes but is still down 1% on 2015 as low pig prices caused a contraction to the EU pig herd. US production is forecast to increase further by 2% on the year to a record level of 11.3 million tonnes. Output from Russia and Brazil is also forecast to increase, by 3% and 2% respectively.


Once again, global pork exports are forecast to increase year on year by 6% in 2016, to 7.6 million tonnes. The majority of the growth this year is driven by an increase of shipments from the EU and US. US exports are forecast to increase by 5% on the year to 2.4 million tonnes. EU exports are expected to outpace the US for the second year running, increasing by 9% to 2.6 million tonnes. Shipments of pig meat to the world’s largest importer, Japan, are expected to increase by 4% on the year to 1.3 million tonnes. Furthermore, demand for imported pig meat from China, South Korea and Mexico is also expected to increase sharply, pushing total global imports up 8% year on year.


Millie Askew, Analyst, 024 7647 8968