Improved trade balance set to reduce UK supplies
Domestic pig meat production growth is still expected to outstrip demand in the coming months. However, an improvement in the balance of trade, with lower imports and higher exports, could reduce the supply-demand imbalance. These are among the conclusions of the latest AHDB Pork forecasts for UK supplies, published today.
The UK’s pig meat production has risen for six consecutive years and this is expected to increase to seven straight years in 2016. This is based on the rise in the UK breeding herd recorded in December, with only a modest reduction forecast in response to the fall in pig prices since then. Heavier weights are also expected to continue adding to production levels, meaning growth in 2016 may be at a similar level to 2015, before slowing down in 2017.
However, there are prospects for a better year for exports, given the weaker pound and strong Chinese demand, coupled with an expectation of lower imports. This is forecast to offset the rise in production, leaving supply levels on the UK market little changed, possibly even slightly lower, compared with last year. This could mean that, even if consumer demand remains subdued, the pig market will be firmer than in the last two years.
Stephen Howarth, Market Specialist Manager
Stephen.firstname.lastname@example.org, 024 7647 8856