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Photo of Short-Term Outlook for EU arable crops and meat markets published

Bethan Wilkins

Analyst

AHDB Pork Market Intelligence

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Short-Term Outlook for EU arable crops and meat markets published

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2016 \ July \ Short-Term Outlook for EU arable crops and meat markets published

The EU Commission has recently published its Short-Term Outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets in 2016 and 2017, and here we look to highlight some of the pertinent points for the pig meat market.

The World Bank has recently (June 2016) revised its projection for world growth significantly downwards, to 2.4% in 2016, 2.8% in 2017 and a projected 3.0% in 2018. This prolongs the slowdown of the world economy, driven by both advanced and emerging economies. The prospects for EU growth remain nearly unchanged.

For pig meat, although the December 2015 livestock survey announced a decline in the EU reproductive pig herd of 1.7%, total pig meat production increased by 1% in the first quarter of 2016. Strong import demand from China has helped to boost pig meat exports and they are expected to reach a record level in 2016 at 2.4 million tonnes. During April, EU pig meat exports to China reached more than 100,000 tonnes, and represented almost 40% of exports. Offal exports to China showed a similar trend. According to the Chinese Agricultural Outlook, the import demand for pig meat if projected to continue over the medium term (900,000 tonnes by 2025).

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EU consumption of pig meat reached 32.5kg per capita in 2015, up almost 1kg compared with 2014. Following increased export demand and higher prices, the level of per capita consumption is expected to decrease in 2016 by 1.6%, and stabilise in 2017, largely in line with the trend over the last ten years.

To read the full report, click here

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Vikki Campbell, Senior Analyst
vikki.Campbell@ahdb.org.uk, 024 7647 8741