EU pig price still in decline- for now
The EU-average pig reference price continued to fall over the past three weeks, declining by just over €4 to stand at €150.89/100kg for week ended 13 November.
With more significant price falls occurring during this period last year, the latest price was over €17 more than the equivalent 2015 figure. A seasonal increase in supplies has likely been behind the recently falling prices. However, with the strong Christmas demand period fast approaching and key producing states’ breeding herds reported back in June, some upturn in prices could still be anticipated in the coming weeks.
A slight upturn in price has recently been seen by the dominant producing nation, Germany. Though the price fell to its lowest level since June for week ended 30 October, it has subsequently increased by 52c to stand at €156.06/100kg for the most recent week. A small price incline has also been recorded by the Netherlands. Other key producing nations, such as Spain, France, Poland and Denmark, have continued to show price decreases, although the rate of decline has been slowing, suggesting a revival may be on the horizon.
Whilst the EU reference price has been in decline, the UK figure has continued to increase, buoyed by strong global competitiveness and tightening supplies. Consequentially, the UK average reference price has been above the EU level for the past four weeks and the price premium has been widening, aided by some recovery in the value of the pound. In sterling terms, the most recent UK figure for week ended 13 November is over 14p/kg more than the EU average price. This is the largest price premium since March.
Bethan Wilkins, Trainee Analyst
email@example.com, 024 7647 8757