EU pig price now in decline
The EU-average pig reference price has tailed off in the latest three weeks.
After peaking at €168.03/100kg in week ended 25 September, the price has fallen by a shade under €8 in the subsequent three weeks to €159.20/100kg (week ended 16 October). This remains 12%, or almost €17, up on the same period both last year and two years previously.
A seasonal increase in supplies is likely responsible for falling EU prices over recent weeks. Also, although Chinese demand has remained strong relative to previous years, latest export figures suggest demand has weakened compared to earlier months. With domestic demand remaining low, the increased availability of EU pork has enabled prices to fall.
Decreasing prices in Northern Europe have driven the overall drop in EU reference price. German prices have particularly declined, by nearly €14 from the peak three weeks ago. Danish, Belgian, Polish and Dutch prices have also fallen over the past three weeks, although by slightly less. Southern Europe has likewise been affected; the Spanish pig price declined by nearly €7 during the same period, for example.
The UK reference price remains below the EU average but as the latter price has fallen in euro terms over recent weeks this gap has narrowed. Three weeks ago, the difference was over 6p/kg, but the most recent figure for week ended 16 October the gap has now fallen to just under 1p/kg.
Bethan Wilkins, Trainee Analyst
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