Global pork production and exports set to reach record highs in 2017
Total global pig meat production is forecast to be down 2% this year, relative to 2015, according to the latest estimate from the US Department of Agriculture’s global outlook report. However, looking forward to 2017 production is predicted to not only recover but increase above 2015 levels.
This year’s fall is driven entirely by an anticipated 6% decline in production by the world’s largest producer, China, to 51.9 million tonnes. The anticipated surge in production next year is also largely attributable to an expected expansion of 4% in China, following two years of decline, encouraged by the currently strong pig price.
Smaller players are also forecast to make significant gains, with a recovering economy and strong international demand driving Brazilian production up by an estimated 5% in 2016 and 3% in 2017. Likewise, Russia is expected to continue expansion with production estimated to increase 6% this year and a further 5% in the next, despite continued outbreaks of African Swine Fever. The US is also anticipated to continue growth both this year and in 2017, by 2% and 4% respectively. In contrast, EU production is set to remain stable over this timeframe.
Export volumes are now forecast to increase well ahead of previous expectations during 2016, up 18% on 2015 levels to a record 8.5 million tonnes. A further 1% increase is then anticipated during 2017. China is once again a key driver of these movements, with import volumes more than doubling this year to 2.4 million tonnes, overtaking Japan as the world’s largest buyer of imported pig meat. This position is expected to be maintained into 2017, though import volumes are set to fall back slightly as the domestic herd expands.
Consequently, volumes from the largest global exporter, the EU, are anticipated to be up 38% this year to 3.3 million tonnes before stabilising next year. Meanwhile, volumes from the US are predicted to increase by 4% in both 2016 and 2017, while Canadian exports are expected to show a short term rise of 9% this year before declining by 4% during 2017.
To read the full USDA report, which also covers beef and poultry meat, click here.
Bethan Wilkins, Trainee Analyst
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