Preparing for a new agricultural world
This year’s AHDB Grain Market Outlook conference, which took place yesterday, focused on helping prepare the industry for a new, post-referendum agricultural world, where issues like productivity, consolidation and efficiency are becoming ever more prevalent.
AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Lead Analyst, Jack Watts, spoke about the outlook for domestic and global grain markets. Global, EU and UK grain markets continue to rumble on as Brexit ‘talk’ takes the limelight. He highlighted that grain markets are currently in a period of relatively low prices, driven by a fourth consecutive year of record global grain output. However, the next few years will be critical for the UK cereals and oilseeds industry to build competitiveness, find new sources of resilience, strengthen customer relationships and prepare for some unknowns.
The second speaker, Christophe Cogny, Biofuel & Oilseed Market Analyst at Tallage, gave an oilseeds market outlook for 2016/17. From a global context this season, meal markets are going to display a bearish sentiment driven by record soyabean output. However, for vegetable oils, markets are likely to be tighter but low crude oil prices may cap price gains.
AHDB Head of Strategic Insight, David Swales, gave a presentation around making sense of the long-term challenges ahead, in terms of Brexit. He highlighted the importance of tariff-free market access to the EU for the UK cereals and oilseeds sector. Attention was drawn to how Brexit has provided opportunities for the UK to open up access to fast growing markets around the world. However, this could provide threats and opportunities.
Finally, Samuel Ferreira Balieiro from Agri Benchmark, spoke about exploring international competitiveness in grain and oilseeds. He gave an overview of how profitable wheat and maize production is around the world as well as who the cost leaders are. He also talked about the economics of oilseed production worldwide, as well as in farm competitiveness of oilseeds vs grains.
Copies of the presentations and videos of the speakers will be available soon through the AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds website.
Millie Askew, Analyst
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