UK pig supplies to remain tight into 2017
Latest AHDB pork forecasts for UK pig meat supplies have been published today.
The UK pork market has entered a period of tighter supply, following the low price recorded in 2015 and early 2016. This is thought to have been driven by a reduction in the UK breeding herd in late 2015 and early 2016, when pig prices were at their lowest. According to latest forecasts from AHDB Pork, this situation is likely to continue into the first half of 2017 but production will start to grow again later in the year. Although much uncertainty remains, not least because of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, this should mean that the market remains firm for some months to come.
With EU prices moving above UK ones, aided by the weak pound, UK pork should be more competitive at home and abroad. This would be expected to lead to lower imports and higher exports. However, to date, that hasn’t really been apparent. UK pork exports have been rising but lower production has limited supplies available for export. However, imports have started to increase, largely due to a sharp rise in Danish shipments since May, the reason for which is currently unclear. Although trade hasn’t realigned yet, it seems reasonable to assume that it will do so over time, if the pound remains weak. Therefore, UK imports are forecast to fall back in the remainder of 2016 and most of 2017, while UK exports are predicted to increase. Balancing all these factors out, supplies on the domestic market are expected to tighten further into 2017, at least until the latter part of the year.
To read more about the outlook for UK pig meat supplies, click here.
Stephen Howarth, Market Specialist Manager
Stephen.firstname.lastname@example.org, 024 7647 8856