EU weaner prices skyrocket
The EU average weaner price has surged over the past three months, climbing over €11 to stand at a shade under €54 per head for week ended 26 February. This is the highest average weaner price on record.
The rising prices reflect the tight supply and increasing prices of finished pigs within the EU in recent months. Even though demand for pig meat remains lacklustre within the EU, export demand continues to be buoyant. At the same time, there are also shortages of weaners as breeding herds are contracting in a number of key producing states. As a result, the EU weaner trade has been increasing, especially into Germany and Poland which has benefitted Danish exporters in particular.
However, the rise in finished pig prices has not yet matched that seen for younger animals, which could ultimately put a ceiling on how much further weaner prices can climb. Despite this, there is clearly optimism that finished pig prices will remain firm in the coming months, helped by the seasonal increase in EU demand. This is even though the export market for pig meat could be challenged further by competition from the Americas. It would seem that weaner prices will remain firm, with pig finishers also benefiting from favourable feed prices even if they are somewhat higher than last year.
The overall strong upward trend was particularly driven by the Netherlands, Germany and Spain. While Dutch and German piglet numbers were both reported to be down on a year earlier according to December pig census figures, Spain actually reported an increase. The Spanish market for weaners is strong at present, with young pigs in demand both for domestic finishing and to a lesser extent the growing live export market. Polish prices have shown more gradual price increases, likely due to relatively larger piglet supplies helped by the large increase in imports. In the UK, weaner prices have also shown more modest price increases, although supplies have been tightening in recent months. Conversely, weaner prices in Denmark actually fell at the end of 2016, and have been relatively stable at around €43 per head for the last 6 weeks.
Bethan Wilkins, Analyst
firstname.lastname@example.org, 024 7647 8757