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Bethan Wilkins

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AHDB Pork Market Intelligence

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EU pork medium-term outlook - exports to grow

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2018 \ December \ EU pork medium-term outlook - exports to grow

The EU Commission recently published its medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets and agricultural income, looking forwards to 2030. Here we highlight some of the key points for the pig meat market.

Following several years of ups and downs, as a result of important developments in production capacity and trade prospects, the EU pork sector has recorded record high levels of pigmeat production and exports for 2018.

As EU pig meat consumption declines, additional shipments to the world market are expected over the outlook period, mostly to China. Consequently, EU exports are expected to grow slowly, reaching almost 2.7 million tonnes by 2030, accounting for around 30% of world pigmeat trade. Chinese import demand is likely to increase in the short term as the impact of ASF is realised in restructuring of the pork sector and pork shortages in some regions. The EU’s share of exports to China will however depend on competition from US and Brazil. Whilst the trade row between the US and China is currently reducing US pork exports to China, developments could change this situation. In addition, competition from Brazil, which is increasing its presence on the Asian markets as sanitary restrictions are lifted, may also have an impact on EU exports to China.

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Continuing environmental concerns around pig meat production, predominantly with respect to manure management, are likely to limit production growth overall. Furthermore, improvements in genetics and production systems are likely to improve fertility and feed conversion ratios, resulting in increased productivity. As a result, it is expected that by 2030 EU pig meat production will decrease slightly (-0.2% per year).

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EU prices are expected to remain firm over the outlook period, closely following changes in the world market, reaching an average of EUR 1540/t in 2030. However, trade relationships and feed cost uncertainties could result in fluctuations.

To read more of the EU medium-term outlook, click here.

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Amey, Brassington

Amey.Brassington@ahdb.org.uk0247 693 5743