Feed market update – December 2017

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Grain markets remained flat during December 2017.

The UK feed wheat futures May-18 wheat futures contract closed at £142.60 on 27 December, up just £0.10/t from the start of the month. Furthermore, the closing prices for the contract had a range of only £1.45/t throughout December. Similarly, Paris maize futures June-18 prices also showed limited change. The contract gained just £0.12/t over the course of December and closed at £144.63/t on 27 December, again with a narrow closing price range of only £1.99/t throughout the month.

On a global level, production and supply estimates have largely been revised upwards this month. Global wheat production in 2017/18 is now forecast at a record 755.2Mt by the USDA (as at 12 December). This is 3.2Mt higher than was forecast in November and 1.6Mt higher than last season. Following this change, global wheat closing stocks in 2017/18 are also forecast at a record 268.4Mt, 5% higher year on year.

Global oilseed markets have in general, seen a decline through December. Paris rapeseed May-18 futures closed at £314.51/t on 27 December, down £11.17/t from the beginning of the month. Chicago soyabean futures (May-18) also fell through December, down £9.60/t between 1 and 27 December to £267.75/t. Palm oil prices also saw a decline during the month. The Kula Lumpur palm oil futures contract for Mar-18 fell £12.00/t during December, closing at £464/t on 27 December.

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The downward pressure in oilseed markets has mainly been driven by increased global production estimates and more favourable weather in South America. Pressuring palm oil this month has been an increase in production combined with lower exports, following India’s import tax increase on edibles oils.

To read about recent developments in the feed market in more detail, click here.

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Peter Collier, Analyst

peter.collier@ahdb.org.uk, 024 7647 8851