Little change anticipated in EU production
In its latest Short Term Outlook, the EU Commission forecasts there will be little change in EU pig meat production in 2019.
Some modest growth is then expected in 2020. This follows a significant increase in output last year (+2%). The stabilisation comes as the EU breeding herd went back into decline last year. This reflects low prices, ASF concerns and environmental regulations. However, productivity gains should compensate for this decline. The forecast for pork is in contrast with those for other meats. Both beef and sheep meat production are expected to decline, though poultry could rise moderately.
Rising EU pig prices are expected in response to improving export prospects to China. The commission expects pig meat exports to grow significantly (+9%) this year as Chinese demand rises. This should mean consumption per capita falls back to 2016/7 levels after it increased in 2018.
Download the full Short Term Outlook report, which also covers arable crops, other meat and dairy products, here.
Bethan Wilkins, Analyst
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