Wet weather delays drilling of winter crops - Feed report
The AHDB Early Bird Survey results were published earlier this week. The figures detail planting intentions for the season and gave an early indication on the effect of a wet autumn on winter drilling. The survey details intentions rather than actual acreages drilled. At mid-November, UK farmers intended to plant 9% less wheat and 12% less winter barley for harvest in 2020. An uptick in spring drilling area is expected with farmers hoping wet fields will be easier to access during the start of 2020. As such, a 28% rise in spring barley intended area to 915Kha is forecast.
November has again been a wet month, rainfall levels in the month to 19 Nov for England were 101% of the long term average. Physical cereal prices have seen support earlier in the month from the wet autumn to incentivise farmers to sell during the traditionally ‘quiet’ winter months.
The latest corn returns (21 Nov) show UK ex-farm feed wheat (Nov delivery) has risen £8.40/t to £140.00/t over the month (31 Oct- 21 Nov). This rise has somewhat filtered through to UK ex-farm feed barley (Nov delivery), which has risen £2.70/t to £121.90/t over the same period. With a lot of barley around and domestic demand somewhat subdued, the barley rise is lessened.
Looking at exports, trade data for July-September highlight barley has taken precedence with 671Kt exported in the period. Wheat volumes were smaller at 413Kt. Whilst large amounts have been exported, a large surplus still remains. As such, grain prices will look to remain competitive with global markets such as France and Denmark. It will be important to observe the export pace throughout the year, as a carry-over of old crop may occur.
Earlier this month, GB animal feed production (including compound and integrated poultry units) statistics for September were published. A decline in production of animal feed for September was seen with figures down 4% year on year. Animal feed production totalled 1.22Mt for the month of September. Barley inclusions in animal feed production were up 8.4% year-on-year in September. However, wheat inclusion in manufactured feed fell 1.6% year-on-year. Overall poultry feed production increased 1.5% on the month to 612.0Kt.
The longer term outlook for domestic proteins looks again to a lower production figure next year for oilseed rape. Early Bird Survey estimates detail a 23% decline in oilseed rape planting intentions. Pest issues have been reported in emerging rapeseed crops, noted most in southern England.
UK delivered rapeseed prices (Dec delivery) have increased throughout November to £338.00/t as of Friday 22 November, up £5.50 from the start of the month. Domestic prices have continued to be pressured by the volume of oilseed imports arriving into the UK and the EU. Season-to-date EU rapeseed imports are now at 3.16Mt, as of 24 Nov, up 86% on the same period last year.
UK imports of soyameal this season have totalled 686Kt so far, according to the EU commission, the highest season-to-date import level since 2015/16. According to the latest animal feed production figures, soyameal usage was up 6.8% in the season to September. The global soyabean picture continues to be well-supplied as the US soyabean harvest approaches completion.
Over the month, sterling has mostly traded above £1=€1.164 against the euro. Against the dollar, sterling has declined slightly to £1=$1.287