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USDA revises 2015 forecasts downwards

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2015 \ April \ USDA revises 2015 forecasts downwards

Latest USDA forecasts suggest that global pig meat production in 2015 is forecast to grow at a slower rate than previously projected, up less than 1% compared with the levels seen in 2014. Forecasts for pig meat exports have also been revised downwards, making 2015 the third consecutive year in which exports have fallen.

The latest global outlook report from the US Department of Agriculture has revised previous forecasts for global pig meat production in 2015 downwards to 110.9m tonnes. This fall comes despite upwards revisions for volumes from both the EU and the US, as the forecasts for China, Brazil and Russia have all been moved to lower levels. This means total production in 2015 is forecast to grow at a slower rate than previously projected, up less than 1% compared with the levels seen in 2014. China is expected to continue to dominate global pig meat production but its production is now forecast to fall in 2015, down marginally compared to the level seen in 2014, the first fall in Chinese output since 2011. Production in the US in 2015 is forecast to be higher than previously thought following the PEDv-affected year experienced in 2014, with production up by over 6% to an anticipated record level. Pig meat production in the EU is expected to continue to experience modest growth.

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Forecasts for pig meat exports have also been revised downwards, by 5% to 6.8m tonnes, which would make 2015 the third consecutive year in which exports have fallen. This fall is mainly driven by downward revisions to forecast exports from the US, Brazil and China as the continuing Russian economic problems and trade restrictions lead to an excess of pig meat on the global market. There is also expected to be increased competition for markets, with more supplies being exported from the EU, whose exports were revised upwards, to 2.25m tonnes. This would make the EU the world’s largest exporter, overtaking the US for the first time since 2004.

To read the full USDA report, which also covers beef and poultry meat, click here.