Global export prices pick up but volumes fall
Average global pork prices continued to edge up in the third quarter of this year, based on analysis of export prices from the four major global exporters.
This continued the slow recovery which has been evident for most of the year, with the average export price in September reaching $2.63/kg, the highest level since June 2015. Nevertheless, prices remain well below the levels recorded between 2011 and 2014. Furthermore, prices are likely to come under renewed pressure in the final three months of the year, given the sharp fall in US prices; at one point, the lean hog futures nearby price reached its lowest level since 2002 and have only recovered modestly since then. While this is yet to have a major impact in the EU, with export values rising in dollar terms, increased competition on export markets may well put some pressure on EU prices.
The rise in prices in the July to September period came at a time when the amount of pork being exported fell back from the inflated level of earlier in the year. Having reached over 500,000 tonnes in May, around 440,000 tonnes was traded in each month in the latest quarter. Although this represents a significant decline, it is worth remembering that this would have represented an all-time high as recently as October last year. As a result, the amount traded in the first nine months of this year reached 4.1 million tonnes, nearly 90% of the total for the whole of last year and up by almost a quarter on January-September 2015.
Stephen Howarth, Market Specialist Manager
Stephen.firstname.lastname@example.org, 024 7647 8856