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Bethan Wilkins

Analyst

AHDB Pork Market Intelligence

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Feed Report- August

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2018 \ August \ Feed Report- August

Read our commentary on the latest developments in the global cereal and oilseeds markets.

The dry, fine weather meant that the GB harvest kicked off early this year, which has resulted in the harvest pace to be above average for most crops. As of 14 August, 75% of the total GB cereal and oilseed crop area had been harvested, which is at least a week ahead of harvest progress at the same point over the last five years. Some of the impacts from the challenging growing season are starting to become evident.

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  • The GB winter wheat harvest reached 80% competition as at 14 August according to the Harvest reports by ADAS. Wheat yields are estimated at 7.7-8.0t/ha, which is below the GB five-year average (8.2t/ha).
  • Meanwhile, the winter barley harvest was complete by the same date, with average yields estimated between 6.8-7.0t/ha, which is in line with the GB five-year average. As of the 14 August, 35% of the spring barley harvest was complete.
  • Feed usage data released by AHDB and Defra show that grain inclusion in animal feed increased in 2017/18. Sheep feed production was up 15.4% on the year, most notably during April, where production was up 47% on the year, with stock having wintered badly, requiring additional spring feeding (read more here) . Feed production for cattle and calves was also up, 6.7% increase year on year (read more here) while pig feed production saw a 3.4% growth year on year.
  • With the prolonged dry spell increasing current forage usage, and putting pressure on winter supplies, cereal demand is likely to remain high in 2018/19.
  • Reduced production estimates added confirmation to the impact of the drought in Europe. On 9 August, Strategie Grains reduced its estimate of EU soft wheat (exc. durum) production by 4.7Mt, to 127.7Mt (141.8Mt in 2017). Meanwhile, it was reported that German grain production could hit a 24 year low , and French maize production was pegged 10% below 2017 .This will tighten EU grain supplies and could limit exports from the bloc.

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  • Import demand for rapeseed is expected to reach a record 17.3 Mt in 2018/19 according to an Oil World report (www.oilworld.biz). This follows an anticipated increase in imports of rapeseed by China as a means to compensate for a forecasted reduction in soyabean imports, because of the ongoing trade disputes with the US.
  • Harvest progress of winter oilseed rape in GB reached 95% completion as at 14 August, according to the ADAS harvest report. Average yields are reported to be slightly below the five-year average, between 3.3-3.5t/ha, although is reportedly highly variable and on light and heavy soils is likely to be lower and higher respectively.
  • The USDA’s August forecast for the EU rapeseed crop was at 19.2Mt, a cut of 1.0Mt from its previous estimate. This is currently 468Kt below the EU commission’s production estimate, which was last updated on 26 July.
  • World oilseed production for 2018/19 is forecast at 603.1Mt in the August World Agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) from the USDA. This is a 10.53Mt increase on the July estimate. The rise in production outstripped the 1.2Mt increase in global oilseed usage. As a result, ending stocks of the 2018/19 season are forecast to reach 199.9Mt, an increase of 8.25 from the USDA’s July estimate. The increase is due to higher production of soyabeans, sunflower seed, cottonseed and peanuts. This is partially offset by reduction in rapeseed production.

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Felicity Rusk, Trainee Analyst

Felicity.Rusk@ahdb.org.uk, 024 7647 8818