Contact

Photo of EU medium-term outlook published

Bethan Wilkins

Analyst

AHDB Pork Market Intelligence

email

Email Bethan

T: work 024 7647 8757

EU medium-term outlook published

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2018 \ January \ EU medium-term outlook published

The latest medium-term outlook has now been published by the EU, looking forwards to 2030.

EU pig meat production is expected to increase slightly in the next few years, but decline back to 2017 levels by 2030.

World population and income growth are projected to drive higher global meat demand, with world meat consumption to increase by 14% between 2017 and 2030. EU meat consumption per capita however, is expected to stabilise before declining slightly, following a recovery since the economic crisis. The marginal forecast increase in pigmeat production therefore, will be solely driven by export demand. Environmental issues surrounding pigmeat production are also likely to remain, predominantly concerning manure management.

Elevated exports to China caused pig meat prices to rise in 2016 and 2017, driving production volumes. The recovery of the domestic Chinese pork sector is expected to have a depressive effect on Chinese import demand in the near future, but China will sustain its position as the largest market, and its influence on international trade will remain high.

undefined

The outlook suggests significant differences in production trends between member states; EU pig meat production is expected to decrease by less than 1% by 2030 in the EU-15, while increasing by almost 7% in the EU-N13.

Although encouraging feed prices should support production moving towards 2030, stabilising EU consumption and competition on the world market is expected to limit growth somewhat. EU prices are expected to stay firm over the outlook period, closely following changes in the world market, although price competition with the US and Brazil will be sustained.

By way of comparison, world import demand for poultry meat is expected to increase by 3.2 million tonnes compared to 2017, reaching 15.5 million tonnes in 2030, driven by growing markets in Asia and the Middle East. Conversely, beef production and consumption are expected to fall.

To read more of the EU medium-term outlook, click here.

undefined

Annie Linekar, Trainee Analyst

annie.linekar@ahdb.org.uk, 024 7647 8723