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Bethan Wilkins

Analyst

AHDB Pork Market Intelligence

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USDA forecasts global growth in pork production and trade

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2018 \ October \ USDA forecasts global growth in pork production and trade

The latest forecast from the United States Department of Agriculture predicts global pork production will rise by 1% in 2019. This reflects continued expansion in China and the United States, underpinned by global economic growth driving increased demand.

An expanding sow herd and improving productivity are expected to drive a 1% increase in Chinese pork production. Although, the widespread outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in that country brings with it a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding production, supply chain logistics and the possible long term effect on demand.

Global pork exports are forecast to rise by nearly 3% in 2019, with the Chinese market dynamics playing an important role, allowing Brazilian exports to recover. Chinese pork imports are expected to increase 7% year-on-year, helped by lower global prices. Europe is forecast to remain the largest exporter, and primarily fill China’s growing demand.

US production is expected to increase by 5% in 2019, with more pigs slaughtered, and at heavier weights. This forecast is due to recent investments in the production sector and is supported by farrowing intentions information. The ongoing trade war is expected to limit US trade with China, however the US will still export 4% more pork, particularly to Mexico, according to the report.

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Duncan Wyatt, Lead Analyst

duncan.wyatt@ahdb.org.uk  0247 647 8856