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Bethan Wilkins

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AHDB Pork Market Intelligence

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Brexit – a no deal pork summary

Home \ Prices & Stats \ News \ 2019 \ August \ Brexit – a no deal pork summary

Recent AHDB analysis concerning a no deal situation has renewed relevance as the UK draws closer to another Brexit deadline. Previously published material covering the possible implications of leaving without a deal can be found below.

The UK is a net importer of pig meat products, particularly processed pork. However, considerable volumes of pig meat products are both imported from and exported to the EU. Under a no deal situation, proposed UK tariffs mean there will be significant differences in the tariffs for imports to the UK, and for exports into the EU. These differences will bring a number of challenges for the industry.

Key Points

  • Import tariffs are proposed on most pig meat products, at a rate lower than the EU’s existing external tariffs.
  • Although pig meat imports are unlikely to change dramatically in the first few months after Brexit, it is expected that the market will adjust over time, perhaps to accommodate more competitively priced pork from outside the EU.
  • Products exported to the EU face a more difficult situation, which may have an effect on profitability. There may be particular difficulty for those exporting sow carcases due to limited alternative markets.

Trade facts

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Selected tariffs

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Potential impact on farm profitability

  • English pig farms could see their Farm Business Income (FBI) fall by 42% in 2022 even if there is a free trade deal with the EU.
  • Under a ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario, where trade with the EU will be subject to WTO tariffs, FBIs could be over £10,000 in the red according to AHDB’s latest modelling work.

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Pig meat

Possible effects of a no deal Brexit on cull sow prices and finished pig production costs

Brexit prospects for UK pork trade

No deal pig meat import tariffs

EU pig meat TRQs

Focussing on feed conversion

American pork in the UK in a no deal Brexit

US pig prices

General

How to prepare for a no deal Brexit

Preparing for change, the characteristics of top-performing farms

UK and EU imports tariffs under a no deal Brexit

Brexit Impact Calculator

Brexit resilience checklist

Brexit toolkit